Every Cheltenham, the same advice does the rounds.

“Just follow Mullins and Henderson.”

And on the surface, it sounds logical. Two powerhouse yards. Festival winners year after year. Big-race dominance.

But profitable?

That’s a different question entirely.

I ran the numbers across the last 25yrs at the Cheltenham Festival. Over 1,500 runners between them. Blindly backing every Mullins and Henderson runner at SP?

-259 points.
-16% ROI.

That’s not a blip. That’s the market doing what it always does — pricing reputation at a premium.

The public piles in. The prices contract. The margin disappears.

They still win races. Of course they do.

But winning races and producing betting value are two completely different things.

Cheltenham markets are efficient at the top end. The obvious angles are already baked into the price.

Which raises the real question…

If blindly following the biggest trainers isn’t the edge — where is it?

That’s where things get interesting.

Because value at Cheltenham rarely sits with the obvious. It sits in:

• Specific race types
• Targeted handicaps
• Trainers flying under the radar
• Market overreactions
• Mispriced second strings

And that’s what we’ll break down next.